Broad-based index products are expected to increase the Y share of personal pension, and personal pension products are expected to expand after the second anniversary of the personal pension system. It is understood that mainstream broad-based index products are expected to increase the personal pension Y share, including Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI A500 Index, GEM Index and other products, which can provide investors with more allocation needs.Huang Wentao of China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. and others: It is estimated that deficit ratio will rise to over 4% in 2025, and it is expected that the stock and debt will continue. On December 9th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Jiantou, and Liu Tianyu, macro analyst of CITIC Jiantou, believe that the policy tone of this Politburo meeting is quite proactive, which shows that the central government has made a full assessment and policy reserve for the pressures and risks that may be encountered in economic development next year, which has strongly echoed the expectations of economic entities. Huang Wentao and Liu Tianyu pointed out that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to reach more than 5.2%, achieving the expected goal of annual economic growth of around 5%. On this basis, the annual growth target of about 5% will also be the basic premise of policy discussion in the next few years. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the fiscal policy has been continuously overweight. This time, the fiscal policy is set to be "more active", which indicates that the fiscal policy will expand again. It is estimated that deficit ratio will increase to over 4% in 2025. Both stocks and debts are expected to continue. Unconventional countercyclical adjustment policies not only provide sufficient impetus for the recovery of economic vitality, but also provide strong support for improving expectations and reviving confidence, and provide sufficient source of living water for the capital market. The stock market is expected to continue to strengthen and the risk-free rate of return is expected to continue to decline.The researcher of Everbright Bank commented on China's import and export data in November: the export growth rate is stronger than seasonality, and foreign trade exports are expected to grow steadily in the next few months. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, told Wall Street that the export growth rate in November was stronger than seasonality, the import decline exceeded expectations (weaker than seasonality), the trade surplus expanded, and foreign trade contributed more to the economy in the fourth quarter. Due to the resilience of overseas demand, overseas foreign trade importers rushed to avoid tariffs and hoarded goods in advance, and the effects of policies such as stabilizing foreign trade appeared, driving export growth to exceed expectations; The decline in imports in November exceeded expectations, mainly due to the weak recovery of domestic demand, the cautious decision of enterprises to expand and increase import inventory, and the low prices of international energy and other commodities that depressed the overall import cost.
Australian Treasury Secretary chalmers: We will hold consultations with the Shadow Minister on the composition of the new Reserve Bank of Australia. Substantial progress has been made in fighting inflation.Reserve Bank of Australia President Brock: I will not agree with the market's reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate path. The market reaction to the statement is not surprising.Datong, Shanxi: Parents' and children's provident funds can be withdrawn to buy houses. On December 9, the Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Datong City, Shanxi Province issued the Notice on Adjusting the Policy of Withdrawing and Lending Some Housing Provident Funds. According to the document, the minimum down payment ratio for the first set of housing and the second set of housing is 20% for paid employees who use provident fund loans to purchase self-occupied commercial housing, and 15% for affordable housing. At the same time, the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points. From May 18, 2024, the interest rates of the first set of individual housing provident fund loans for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85% respectively, and the interest rates of the second set of individual housing provident fund loans for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years will be adjusted to 2.775% and 3.325% respectively. Datong will also appropriately increase the amount of provident fund loans. For high-level talents, families with two or more children and families with active military personnel, the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans will rise by 20% on the basis of the current policy. Expand the scope of housing provident fund purchase, and when employees purchase housing, they can also apply for the withdrawal of housing provident fund for parents or children.
Altman, CEO of OpenAI: The demand for the AI video production model Sora is seriously underestimated. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, posted on the social media platform X that it will take some time for everyone to use the artificial intelligence (AI) video production model Sora.Sichuan Luqiao established a new building materials company, and the enterprise search APP showed that recently, Sichuan Jiaojian Building Materials Co., Ltd. was established, with Qu Hong as the legal representative and a registered capital of 5 million yuan. Its business scope includes: sales of building materials; Non-metallic minerals and products sales; Manufacturing of nonmetallic mineral products; Metal ore sales, etc. Enterprise survey shows that the company is indirectly wholly-owned by Sichuan Luqiao.The IMF believes that Asian economies are resilient enough to withstand the test of turmoil. Economists of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) say that Asian economies are resilient enough to withstand the test of turmoil, emphasizing the importance of calmly coping with turmoil when the region faces various internal risks and challenges brought by Trump's return to the White House. Asia is still the key engine of global economic growth, but uncertainty caused by many factors has increased this year. The unexpected leadership change in Japan, the chaotic martial law storm in South Korea and Trump's tariff threat all make the future of the region even more unpredictable. Alasdair Scott, head of the Asia-Pacific Department of the IMF, declined to comment on specific countries and political situations, but he emphasized the resilience of Asia and said that the region still has great growth potential.
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide 12-13